Georgia’s statewide elections in November 2022 not only have major consequences in terms of the balance of power in the U.S. Senate (Sen. Warnock is up for a quick re-election), but looking towards the Presidential race in 2024, if the state GOP cannot find ways to win statewide, Georgia and its critical 16 Electoral votes will be lost along with a path to victory nationally. Before everyone cedes the state to Democratic control, we would note Georgia was the most narrow win for President Biden, .25% margin with 4.998M votes cast. Additionally, media outlets have rarely mentioned the Libertarian candidate for President in 2022 received 62,138 votes, or 1.24% of the vote. Another election outcome that gives the state GOP hope is state House GOP members won 52.8% of votes cast, and state Senate GOP members won 53.7% of votes cast during the 2020 General election.

State & Local

Fall football is in the air with UGA beating Clemson, currently ranked #2 in the country, and the Atlanta Braves are 4.5 games ahead in NL East. Politics and policy are also in the air, with the State Legislature busy with both fundraisers and policy discussions this month, the House Rural Development Council meeting late last week, Governor Kemp hosting a re-election kickoff event on the coast for his strongest supporters (we were there, more on that later), and discussions this week on cityhood and public safety. Public safety concerns, especially in the metro Atlanta area, is THE issue in the upcoming City of Atlanta Mayoral race, with election day on November 2nd. With 14 candidates running to replace Mayor Bottoms (not seeking re-election), a recent AJC-UGA poll shows no candidate with 50+1% of voter support needed to avoid a runoff. Former Mayor Kasim Reed and City Council President Felicia Moore both have support in the low 20s% of those polled, and no other candidate registered more than 6% support of those polled. There are still 41% of likely voters still undecided in the race, but it is highly unlikely all those currently undecided breaks for one of the leading candidates and a runoff avoid, but anything can happen in the next 49 days. Public safety concerns are the dominant issue, with former Mayor Reed highlighting his past commitment and track record on the issue, and President Moore spending significant campaign resources in the northern Buckhead area laying out her public safety plans. At the same time, state legislators are debating the proposed new Buckhead City, which would create a new city north of Atlanta, and a new feasibility study was released yesterday by Valdosta State University. Cityhood would require state legislative approval in 2022 and also need to avoid the Governor’s veto, and those voters in support of cityhood must weigh Reed’s public safety record versus his ability to leverage state legislative contacts and assist state leaders with the Biden Administration to squash the cityhood effort. Reed was vetted by the Obama Administration for several cabinet posts, ultimately declined what was offered but is well-connected in DC.

U.S. Senator Warnock Re-Election

While our firm remains focused on state legislative activity, the past two weeks have been full of new political developments for U.S. Senator Warnock’s re-election in 2022. With the formal candidate filing of Herschel Walker, a former UGA and NFL standout, the GOP primary field is filling up. Mr. Walker, who has an incredibly high name ID, especially with older likely voters, was quickly endorsed by Trump. Walker has been labeled as an out-of-state candidate before even filing, mostly by the AJC and current Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black, who is also running for the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate. Mr. Black’s candidacy has picked up several local endorsements, most notably Doug Collins, a former NE Georgia Congressman. Mr. Black was a very vocal supporter of Doug Collins’ challenge to Loeffler, but the early endorsement still surprised many insiders. This endorsement creates a crack in Mr. Walker having the full support of the Trump machine, but Mr. Walker also endorsed former U.S. Senator Loeffler during her 2020 campaign against Doug Collins. While Collins was unsuccessful in his challenge to former Senator Loeffler, his endorsement is significant as he received nearly 1 million votes (980,454) in the November 2020 jungle primary, performing especially strongly in Republican voter-rich NE Georgia.

The Walker campaign quickly named several staffers who worked previously for former President Trump and Governor Kemp. Two other candidates are crisscrossing the state, Latham Saddler and Kelvin King, seeking the GOP nomination and the opportunity to challenge U.S. Senator Warnock next November. We would note whoever is successful in the GOP Primary will face a well-funded Warnock, and the U.S. Senate race appears first on the November 2022 ballot, with the Governor’s race appearing second.

Governor Kemp’s Re-Election

TVG had a strong showing last weekend with the Governor on the coast as he kicked off his re-election campaign. It was a great two-day event with an intimate group of supporters that provided meaningful discussions and an insightful look at where the campaign is and where they are looking to go. First things first, you have to win the GOP Primary on May 24th. To be in September 2021, and only have a marginal GOP primary challenger is a major plus for Governor Kemp, as former President Trump has continually, publicly called out Kemp, even as recently as a month ago, for not doing more to address Trump’s narrow defeat in November 2020. Being a Trump target could have resulted in a more serious GOP challenger, but hasn’t yet, and being a Trump target could be a positive in a 2022 general election, as a Democratic strategy in the recent California recall effort and upcoming Virginia’s Governor race is to label the GOP opponent as Trump 2.0. This is a hard connection to make credibly in Georgia. The Kemp campaign team acknowledges that after the Trump loss, and subsequent loss of two U.S. Senate seats, the state GOP party was fractured. But events such as the MLB decision to move the All-Star game from Atlanta, and initiatives of the Biden Administration have brought the party back together, with the Kemp team estimating the Governor is at high 70s% approval with likely GOP voters. Kemp is not unique in facing a GOP primary opponent, as the two previous GOP Governors, Perdue and Deal, faced primary opponents during their re-election campaigns.

The real race will be the general election in November 2022, with no announced Democratic challenger yet, despite every other statewide position having competitive Democratic primaries for the first time in two decades. To win in November, the Kemp team is focused on fundraising, with the goal of $50M in hard dollars for the campaign (only raised $21M in hard dollars in 2018), hitting the road to raise money outside of Georgia with the assistance of RGA and the Heritage Foundation, and use $5M in a newly formed leadership PAC to directly register 350,000 currently unregistered GOP voters. There was notable diversity in attendees at the Kemp campaign kickoff event, with several Asian business leaders serving in key roles and if Kemp can increase his share of the minority vote by 2%, it’s an actual 4% swing in reality. Kemp defeated Abrams by only .4% in 2018.

Abrams has already stated publicly and privately she will commit $300M to re-electing U.S. Senate Warnock and defeating Governor Kemp. Because of her unique ability to raise money nationally, there are no traditional time constraints in declaring herself or another candidate for Governor. One challenge for Kemp in securing the GOP vote is there is no announced alternative Democratic candidate to contrast with currently. Governor Kemp will run as if Abrams will run, and use the upcoming special session on redistricting (expected in early November 2021) and the 2022 General Assembly to champion policies to draw a contrast with the future Democratic opponent.